Japan PV market is growing quickly, according DB Solar Report

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Japan PV
by Carmine Lorenzo

While ~1.1GW of solar was installed under the FiT scheme last year (April to December), ~2.8GW was installed in 1H 2013. This rapid acceleration will likely continue and into 2014 as projects start to run into a likely FiT reduction in April 2014 (announced in March). The 11% reduction from ~42 yen/kWh to ~38 Yen/kWh still implies ~$0.35-40 cents per kwh which is one of the highest in the world. Another reduction to $0.30-0.40 cents per kwh would still provide for attractive rates for both household and utility scale “megasolar” projects. According to official data, just under 4GW of solar power was connected due to the FiT scheme as of July 2013, while over 22GW have been approved. Roughly a third of total MW installed have been rooftop DG projects for households, which implies a healthy DG market going forward. Recently, several foreign solar companies have announced investments in Japan. First Solar recently opened an operations center in Japan and is expected to roll out TetraSun’s modules primarily to that market. Canadian Solar signed a~$40M loan agreement for ~145MW of Japanese projects as well, and every major module manufacturer has a presence to varying degrees. We expect demand in Japan to reach 7GW in 2013 and expect 7-10GW if Japanese FiTs are marginally reduced and METI implements more aggressive measures to speed up the 22GW of pipeline.

source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research, 6th January 2014



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